Mac Bank offers another insight today into ongoing Chinese steel production strength:
While the copper and iron ore data threw up few surprises, steel data proved a lot more interesting. Net steel exports rose 24% MoM and 43% YoY to 57.8mtpa, or 11mtpa higher than that seen last month. While lower than the elevated levels seen in mid-2008, this was the highest level since June 2010. Certainly, steel production has remained strong – even the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association showed August 21–31 output was estimated at 773mtpa, flat sequentially and ~30mtpa higher than we had predicted earlier in the year. However, the rise in net exports suggests that, even with real estate demand outperforming, more material is bleeding into the export market, helped by a pick-up in Asian market prices during July–August. As such, although macro data has been surprising on the upside, sequential Chinese apparent steel demand is flat to falling.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
