I don’t usually bother reporting on the final reading of the HSBC China PMI final because the Flash is most often unchanged. Not this month:
After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted at 50.2 in September, broadly unchanged from 50.1 in August, and signalled that operating conditions improved fractionally since the previous month. Though only slight, this was a positive development, with the PMI signalling a further improvement upon July’s 11-month low.
The Flash PMI suggested 51.2 so it’s fair miss. No reason was offered so it is either survey volatility or a sudden slowdown. I’ll take the former but it does suddenly suggest that the Chinese rebound has been a little hyped.
The official reading is much more reliable and is out tomorrow.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
