Temporary immigration booms, permanent falls

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ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 19 12.02

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of June, which again revealed surging net temporary migration into Australia, but falling net permanent migration.

In the year to June 2013, there were 675,950 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia, partly offset by 369,450 permanent and long-term departures from Australia (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_141 Aug. 02 11.46

There were 306,500 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to June 2013, representing a 54% increase from the January 2011 trough and more than double the long-run average (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_142 Aug. 02 11.48
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However, while overall net long-term arrivals are booming, it is a different story for permanent migration. In the year to June 2013, permanent arrivals fell by 4% to 152,410, whereas permanent departures rose 5% to their highest ever level of 91,770 (see next chart).

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In fact, net permanent arrivals into Australia fell for the tenth consecutive month and are now tracking 9% below the long-run average (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_144 Aug. 02 11.51

As noted last month, much of the recent immigration into Australia has been temporary. That said, according to the Department of Immigration, around 30% of workers on 457 visas end up becoming permanent residents, suggesting actual permanent migration remains at relatively high levels.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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