From The Australian today:
The latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, finds Mr Abbott in his best position ever against Mr Rudd.
Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.
Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent as Mr Abbott spent much of last week campaigning against minority government, ruling out doing a deal with the Greens and challenging Mr Rudd to follow.
On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has risen to 54 per cent.
While polls in specific seats have shown big swings against Labor, the worst trend for the government has been a sharp decline in the popularity of Mr Rudd and counter-rise for Mr Abbott.
Voter satisfaction with Mr Rudd dropped four points to 35 per cent, and dissatisfaction jumped six points, to 54 per cent – the worst personal support Mr Rudd has ever had as prime minister and just below when he was dumped three years ago.
The election looks to be decided. In my view the reason is obvious. Punters gave Kevin Rudd a second chance and he gave them the old Kevin: overly political, overly reactive and values-free, confirming the judgement of his erstwhile parliamentary colleagues.
In his desperation to appear different our Kevin to Julia he only confirmed he is unchanged. It is a fitting end to a government that has had plenty of good ideas but very poor execution.
I would vote myself for the Opposition now, with pleasure, had it not pledged to unravel those good ideas.
Meanwhile, from Mark the Ballot (cross-posted), a set-by-seat analysis of betting markets shows more good news for the Libs:
To cure my boredom, I have been looking at the Centrebet individual seat odds. I have jerry-built a web-scraper and converted the results to the following table (the run was at 6.45pm on Saturday 17 August). Each row in the table represents a seat. The first column is the seat name. The second column is the state. The next three columns are the probabilities of a Labor, Coalition or Other win, expressed as a percentage (calculated from the odds and adjusted for the bookmaker’s over-round). The “current” column indicates the party that currently holds the seat. The “favourite” column indicates the party the bookmaker’s favour to win the seat. The final column is whether this would represent a change to the composition of the parliament at the time of its dissolution (Labor: 71; Coalition: 72; Others: 7). The table is ordered from the least probable result to the most probable result. Below the table are some observations.
State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change Moreton QLD 45.7 49.5 4.8 Labor Coalition TRUE Eden-Monaro NSW 50.4 44.1 5.4 Labor Labor FALSE Lingiari NT 52.3 40.2 7.5 Labor Labor FALSE Lilley QLD 54.5 41.8 3.8 Labor Labor FALSE Petrie QLD 54.8 42.1 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE Banks NSW 39.9 54.9 5.2 Labor Coalition TRUE Parramatta NSW 55.5 37.4 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE Brisbane QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE Brand WA 58.4 35.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Capricornia QLD 58.5 35.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE Lyons TAS 58.6 35.9 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE Page NSW 58.8 36.0 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Blair QLD 60.0 36.7 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE Reid NSW 35.1 60.6 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE Robertson NSW 30.4 60.8 8.8 Labor Coalition TRUE Kingsford Smith NSW 61.0 34.7 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE Solomon NT 32.4 62.5 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE La Trobe VIC 31.9 62.6 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE Dobell NSW 29.5 63.3 7.2 Other Coalition TRUE Barton NSW 63.7 29.7 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE Greenway NSW 32.8 64.4 2.9 Labor Coalition TRUE McEwen VIC 65.3 30.4 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE Hindmarsh SA 65.6 30.5 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE Franklin TAS 66.3 26.9 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE Forde QLD 28.4 66.6 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Richmond NSW 67.0 26.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE Longman QLD 27.5 67.6 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Braddon TAS 27.5 67.8 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE Bonner QLD 27.6 68.0 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Melbourne VIC 68.3 2.6 29.1 Other Labor TRUE Dawson QLD 25.7 68.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Hasluck WA 27.9 68.8 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Herbert QLD 25.9 68.8 5.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE Werriwa NSW 70.8 25.3 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE Adelaide SA 70.9 23.1 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE Swan WA 23.8 72.3 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Deakin VIC 20.2 72.7 7.1 Labor Coalition TRUE McMahon NSW 73.4 23.6 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE Bass TAS 20.5 74.0 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE Casey VIC 18.1 74.8 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE Lindsay NSW 20.9 75.2 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE Newcastle NSW 75.3 16.1 8.7 Labor Labor FALSE Bruce VIC 75.6 18.1 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE Denison TAS 19.5 4.9 75.6 Other Other FALSE Leichhardt QLD 18.1 75.6 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Boothby SA 18.3 75.8 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Aston VIC 18.2 75.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Canning WA 19.6 76.1 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Corangamite VIC 16.3 76.3 7.4 Labor Coalition TRUE Dunkley VIC 16.3 76.6 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE Fairfax QLD 6.6 77.1 16.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Fremantle WA 77.6 16.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE Gilmore NSW 16.6 77.9 5.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE Macquarie NSW 16.7 78.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE Bendigo VIC 78.4 15.0 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE Indi VIC 4.0 78.7 17.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE Rankin QLD 78.9 18.0 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE Fisher QLD 12.2 79.0 8.8 Other Coalition TRUE Hinkler QLD 10.5 79.2 10.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE McMillan VIC 14.6 79.4 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE Perth WA 80.0 13.3 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE Wakefield SA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Macarthur NSW 14.8 80.8 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Fadden QLD 10.0 81.4 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE Bowman QLD 13.5 81.4 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE Wright QLD 5.8 81.6 12.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE Oxley QLD 81.7 15.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE Bennelong NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Stirling WA 10.8 82.5 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE Watson NSW 83.0 12.7 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE Charlton NSW 83.3 11.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Isaacs VIC 83.3 11.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Cowan WA 10.3 83.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Hunter NSW 83.9 10.9 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE Makin SA 84.2 11.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE Hughes NSW 11.1 84.6 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Blaxland NSW 84.9 11.1 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE Griffith QLD 85.0 9.6 5.4 Labor Labor FALSE Dickson QLD 9.8 85.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Canberra ACT 85.3 8.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Kingston SA 85.5 9.8 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE Kennedy QLD 5.0 9.4 85.7 Other Other FALSE Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Sturt SA 8.0 86.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE Curtin WA 4.2 87.2 8.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE Parkes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE New England NSW 6.8 88.1 5.0 Other Coalition TRUE Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE Maranoa QLD 5.3 89.4 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE O’Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE The first thing to observe is that the Coalition is the favourite in 87 seats; Labor in 61 and Others (Bob Katter and Andrew Wilkie) in two seats. If the favourite got up in every seat, it would be a pretty convincing win for the Coalition.
Coalition Labor Other Seat count: 87 61 2 The Cube Law asserts that the ratio of seats a party wins at an election is approximately a cube of the ratio of votes the party won in that election. We can express this algebraically as follows (where s is the proportion of seats won by a party and v is the proportion of votes won by the party). Both s and v lie in the range from 0 to 1.
If we assume that Wilke breaks Labor and Katter breaks for the Coalition, we can apply the cube law to get an estimate of the TPP Labor vote implied by the punters. If we take the cube root of 62/88 we get 0.88982. Let’s call this value k. We can then solve for v to show that the punters think the two-party preferred vote share will be: v = k / (k + 1). In this case, the punters are predicting a TPP vote share around 47.1 per cent for Labor.
In this context, let’s look at the (so called) bellwether seats. Intriguingly, one of the historic bellwethers – Makin – is tipped to lose its bellwether status. The punters think it will stay with Labor. Other bellwether seats – Lindsay and Robinson – are tipped for a change at this election. On two bellwethers, the punters are undecided (itself an interesting fact). The odds in Moreton in Queensland and Eden-Monaro in NSW are pretty close to a line ball. In probability terms they are a coin-flip. Collectively the punters think they could go either way. While the punters think the over-all result is certain, they are hedging on these two bellwether seats.
The next thing to look at is the “others”. As noted above, the punters think Andrew Wilkie and Bob Katter have a damned good chance of being returned. The punters give Adam Bandt for the Greens less than a 30 per cent chance of being returned in the seat of Melbourne (paying $3.30 for the win). Clive Palmer’s tilt in the seat of Fairfax has Centrebet paying $6.50 for “any other candidate”. Similarly, Cathy McGowan’s tilt in the seat of Indi has Centrebet paying $6.50 for an “Independent”.
My final observation is with the captain’s pick for Forde. The punters think that Bert van Manen will beat former premier, Peter Beattie.
