Positive trade balance to add to June GDP

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ScreenHunter_07 Nov. 26 16.13

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released trade data for the month of June, with Australia recording a seasonally-adjusted trade surplus of $602 million. The result disappointed analysts’ expectations, which had expected a trade surplus of $804 million.

It was the fifth consecutive monthly surplus and follows the $507 million surplus recorded in May (revised down from $670 million) and the $55 million surplus recorded in April (revised down from $171 million). The next chart shows the quarterly breakdown, with the result likely to add to June quarter GDP:

ScreenHunter_44 Aug. 06 13.00
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In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell $299m (1%) to $26,077m. However, the fall in exports more than offset by a $394m (2%) fall in imports to $25,475m, mostly on the back of lower intermediate and other merchandise goods (-$598m).

Australia’s biggest export commodity – iron ore (24% share) fell by $489 million in June, whereas Australia’s second and third biggest export commodities – coal (16% share) and natural gas (6% share) rose by $310 million and $108 million respectively. Gold – Australia’s fourth biggest export commodity (5% share) – fell by $218 million over the month (see below chart).

ScreenHunter_45 Aug. 06 13.09
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Exports to China fell by $718 million over the month to $7,883 million, with its share of total exports also falling slightly to 35.1%. Exports to the the third and fourth biggest markets – Korea (7.3% share), and India (3.6% share) – also fell by $28 million and $275 million respectively, whereas exports to Japan – the second biggest market – rose by $18 million over the month (see below chart).

ScreenHunter_46 Aug. 06 13.34

As always, Western Australia dominated the nation’s exports. It alone accounted for 44% of Australia’s merchandise exports in June, although they fell by 8% over the month. Exports from Queensland also fell by 3%, although they appear to have recovered after tanking in January (see below chart).

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ScreenHunter_47 Aug. 06 13.36

Again, Western Australia continues to be the state driving the nation’s trade surplus, although Queensland and South Australia are also in the black:

ScreenHunter_48 Aug. 06 13.37
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Finally, Australia’s services trade balance deteriorated marginally in June (-$25 million), driven by lower tourism exports and higher tourism imports (see below chart).

ScreenHunter_49 Aug. 06 13.42

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.