Daily iron ore price update (India to lift Goan ban?)

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Find below the iron ore price table for August 29,2013:

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Weakness in the paper markets continued with rebar futures down sharply again.

Meanwhile, India continues to agonise over its self-induced crisis. From Platts:

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India’s widening current account deficit has prompted talks in central government circles of a possible reduction in iron ore export tariffs — to about 20% from 30% presently — to help revive ore export volumes and boost dollar inflows into the country.

Although a weak rupee promises to help Indian exporters price their cargoes competitively in the seaborne market, a reduction in export tariffs would do little to boost export volumes unless restrictions on mining in key ore-producing states such as Goa are lifted to make more ore available for export, market participants said this week.

The steady downfall of the Indian rupee, which has so far plunged some 20% versus the US dollar since early June, has seen Indian cargoes resurfacing in the spot market during this period.

For instance, Indian iron ore of about 58%-Fe grade was recently heard trading at a discount of $5-6/dmt to mainstream Australian material with similar iron content, although liquidity of the former remained extremely tight.

But these cargoes mostly originated from east coast India, as mining restrictions in Goa and Karnataka continued.

…Market participants thus argued it was imperative for New Delhi to also lift the mining ban on Goa in order to tap into the export opportunities made available by the weak rupee and momentum in Chinese buying interest.

But court hearings by the Supreme Court of India into the Goan mining and export ban case are yet to progress, with the court having last heard the case on August 5 but yet to schedule the next hearing.

A Shanghai-based trader said there was talk in the market of possible plans to put Goa back into the ore export business “as early as October after the monsoon season”.

Goa has typically accounted for half of India’s iron ore export volumes.

A local miner estimated that about 14 million mt of iron ore stocks, piled up at Goa’s ports and jetties, were immediately available for export were the ban to be lifted.

This is the only sensible outcome but navigating India’s courts is a fool’s errand.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.