Bogan exodus offset by bogan influx

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By Leith van Onselen

Friday’s overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for June contained some very interesting figures, with the number of outbound tourists jumping to another new record monthly and annual high, whereas the number of inbound tourists also surged on the back of a big influx from the UK for the Australia versus British and Irish Lions Rugby series.

The number of short-term visitor arrivals rose by a seasonally-adjusted 7.6% in June, driven by a 69% surge in tourists from the UK, whereas short-term resident departures rose by 0.7% to a new record. The ratio of annual arrivals to departures also rose to 75.0% from 74.8% in May, although the improvement is likely to be only temporary as the rugby effect wears off (see below chart).

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In the year to June 2013, the number of short-term visitor arrivals and resident departures set new records – up 5.2% and 5.2% respectively (see next chart).

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A record 6.30 million inbound tourists arrived in Australia over the year – a 35% increase on a decade ago. However, the number of Australians holidaying overseas also hit a record 8.40 million departures – a 157% increase on 10 years ago.

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The key bogan hotspot of South East Asia (particularly Indonesia and Thailand) remains Australia’s favourite holiday destination, receiving a near record 223,200 visitors in June 2013, or 30.4% of Australia’s total departures. This was followed by Oceania (21%), the Americas (14%), North West Europe (11%), and North East Asia (11%):

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By contrast, the most foreign visitors to Australia came from NE Asia (mostly China), which accounted for 24% arrivals respectively in June 2013, although there was also a huge surge in North-West European tourists on the back of the arrival of rugby fans from the UK:

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Looking ahead, the ongoing devaluation of the Australian Dollar should help stem the flow of outbound tourists, whilst also attracting more inbound tourism from abroad.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.