Weekly poll aggregation

ReachTEL at 49-51 moved a point in Labor’s favour
Morgan at 52-48 moved half a point in Labor’s favour
Newspoll at 48-52 moved two points in the Coalition’s favour
Essential at 49-51 in the Coalitions favour

These polls produced an aggregation that is largely unchanged. [But note: I have down-weighted the Morgan sample size in this week’s aggregation to better match the variance we see in that polling series. I have also relaxed the day-to-day change constraint in the temporal part of the model. I am using the one-percent figure I originally used].

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.