Weekly poll aggregation

David Llewellyn-Smith

Wednesday 10 July 2013

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.

Three polls came out in the past 24 hours:

Newspoll is at 50-50
Morgan has Labor well in front at 52.5 to 47.5 (using the preferences flows from the last election)
Essential has the Coalition well in front on 48-52

Graphically, this looks like.

Turning to the Bayesian aggregation.

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.