Upgrading Ashes forecast

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Is the Australian cricket team we’re watching or some new reality TV show? From The Australian today:

CLAIMS that Michael Clarke believes Shane Watson’s faction is a “cancer” within the side have further rocked the Australian cricket team two days ahead of the second Ashes Test.

Arthur’s lawyers confirmed last night that he had “filed proceedings on a number of grounds in the Fair Work Commission (in) Sydney for being sacked and scapegoated. The grounds include racial discrimination.”

It is, however, further ugly details in the claim about a rift between Clarke and Watson that will cause more grief to a side that has lost its past five Tests, had five players stood down from recent matches for disciplinary reasons, sacked the coach, seen the vice-captain quit and is one down in the Ashes.

Clarke refused to comment on the Arthur claims in London last night, but said that since coach Darren Lehmann had taken over team unity had been strong.

“I can’t remember for a long time the team being as united as we are right now,” he said.

“I think, no coincidence, Darren has played a big part in that.

“We’ve got a fantastic group with a great coach that’s united us and we’re heading in the right direction.”

…The report says Clarke described Watson and his faction as a “cancer” in the team and the coach received no support from Cricket Australia when he, Clarke and manager Gavin Dovey stood down Watson and three others over a minor disciplinary matter in India. “There was major tension between Michael Clarke and Shane Watson,” Arthur’s claim states.

…High-performance manager Pat Howard added to the controversy at the time of the incident by suggesting Watson was a team player only “sometimes”.

I guess much of this is behind the team but it does rather look like Arthur’s is going to drip feed scandal into the media. With the second Test just two days away I’ve not yet provided my wash up of the first. So here it is!

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Australia are slightly less weak than I thought and England slightly less strong. That makes my 10-nil consecutive series forecast look overly gloomy. The two new faces in the England line-up, Joe Root and Johnny Bairstow look green. Root in particular is one of those weak-limbed English batsmen that perform well in English conditions with soft hands but get blasted off bouncy Australian pitches until they adapt.

In the Australian side, the Ashton Agar discovery is not to be underestimated. Sure, he adds a bit more starch to a long tail. Better, he can bowl. He’s economical and has drift and bounce as natural talents. In time he will learn loop and variation appropriate at test level. Our other bowlers were much better in the second innings than the first despite the scoreline and did show they are getting a handle on reverse swing bowling. There’s no superstar among them but they are reasonably consistent.

In our batting, it was not a coincidence that Australia’s tail wagged twice so violently in Trent Bridge that it nearly pulled off an unlikely win. It’s a long tail but technically excellent and it looks like Brad Haddin is back to his best. If only we had a batting head and body in front of it. On that score, if the rumours of Ed Cowan’s demise are right it’s a mistake. It’s ludicrous playing Steven Smith as a batsman. He should make way for Usman Khawaja.

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We could still lose every test in England but a major hole has been filled and at home we’ll do better. I’ll change my prediction to 8-2.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.