Trading Week: US dollar weakens, risk on

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By Chris Becker

Back from holiday and what a week, particularly in the US dollar/commodity/currency complex, alongside some misplaced “jokes” by the local interest-rate lever believers at Martin Place.

Here’s some charts of markets that you should be watching at the moment, with my own notes and thoughts attached as of Friday night.

Remember, the following views are my own, do not constitute advice and are for information purposes only. I may have positions in any or all of the below and their associated markets both long and short, on an intra-day, daily and weekly basis for my own account. Please seek advice from a licensed adviser before making any investment decisions.

The biggest moves in US markets have been interest rates: a near doubling of 10 year yields – 

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tnx_us_price_weekly.03sep10_to_04sep13

US dollar has had a shocking week on back of comments by Ben Bernanke – but still in a clear bull trend:

$dxy_us_price_weekly.23sep11_to_26jan14

Gold (USD) had a bounce on USD weakness, but there is no real case for a new bull market. Here’s the weekly chart:

xauusdo_pm_price_weekly.30apr09_to_14mar14

Aussie dollar remains under pressure, but has potential to breakout strongly. I doubt it, but follow the chart (editor’s note, this was yesterday, the AUD briefly broke 90 cents last night which would change this chart):

audusd_fx_price_daily.29mar13_to_18aug13

Chinese markets went nuts this week – check out the Shanghai Comp (with ASX200 Materials in red):

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ssec_ix_price_daily_and_commodity_channel_index___daily___75_periods.22jan13_to_03aug13

With a long term view of the commodities complex – that’s a bear market btw:

$dubs_us_price_weekly.02nov06_to_15nov13

Crude oil continues its breakout as the US dollar reversed, but moving into resistance:

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Which isn’t impeding the US stock market – which has made a new high on the S&P500:

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$spx_us_price_weekly.15jul11_to_19aug13

And finally, our local bourse, benefiting as both financials and materials are rallying strongly. Can it get to 5200 again?

 $xjo_ax_price_weekly.08nov11_to_02jul14