Should the Libs dump Abbott for Turnbull?

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The suggestion had to come. And Michael Short of the SMH makes it today:

It would not be surprising were Liberal members of Federal Parliament feeling nervous, even skittish. Only days ago, they were considered all but certain to win the coming election. Tony Abbott now looks an even bet to emulate his former boss John Hewson (Abbott was Hewson’s media adviser), who in 1993 lost what was widely considered an unloseable ballot against Paul Keating.

…As a former leading businessman, Turnbull has appeal in the corporate sector. As a former leading internet entrepreneur, he has appeal to younger people. As a moderate, he appeals to the many voters who are uncomfortable with what they feel are unduly harsh policies on asylum seekers, to those who suspect Abbott would screw down on workers’ entitlements by toughening up industrial relations policy and to those who favour action on climate change.

Once the election campaign proper begins, it is hoped there will be increasing focus throughout the community on policy rather than politics, and on ideas rather than ideology. Abbott has excelled in opposing, but has not inspired voters with policy ideas…if Abbott is to win this election, he will need to convince voters he has the policies that will improve their lives. A large part of that will be determined by the substance and detail of the policies. But much, too, will depend on sales skills, and it appears Turnbull cuts through better than Abbott. Outside of the corridors of Canberra, people like Turnbull. There is a lingering, almost intangible, hesitation about Abbott, if the polls are to be given credence.

It’s a fascinating idea. I think Joe Hockey has done a good job as shadow treasurer. The rest of the LNP team is pretty ordinary but no more so than Labor.

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However, the problem is not just Tony Abbott. Abbott’s negativity has infected the policy platform – his utterances on towing back the boats and austerity, his plans to scrap the agonisingly achieved carbon price and slash the NBN plan halfway through construction – are all policies out-of-step with the push for a positive election debate.

Can you imagine Malcolm Turnbull prosecuting this case, and if he doesn’t, could the Libs dump its platform so close to the election? Not only that, after all the bluster about leadership stability, it would be kind of ridiculous.

No, I think the Libs are stuck with their man, for good or ill.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.