Kevin poll rocket sputters, boat afterburners ignite

The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (down 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (unchanged).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (up 2%) and support for Independents/ Others is 8.5% (down 1.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences byhow Australian electors voted at the last Federal Election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 5.5pts to 115 – the highest since November 2012 (116.5). Now 48.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the ALP this week and still clearly favour the ALP (55.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men are evenly split: ALP 50% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 50% (unchanged).

Today’s Newspoll also shows Rudd’s rise flattening out but with the LNP still in front:

According to the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian last weekend, Labor’s rise in primary vote steadied, going from 38 to 37 per cent, while the Coalition’s rose to a four-week high of 45 per cent, up three percentage points.

Based on preference flows at the 2010 election the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, 52 to 48 per cent, after Labor had fought back to 50-50 two weeks ago.

…Support for Mr Rudd fell from 53 to 50 per cent and Mr Abbott’s support rose from 31 to 34 per cent – virtually the same position for both when Mr Rudd took over at the end of June.

Meanwhile, Aussies, God love ’em, can’t get enough of packing refugees off to PNG:

The results were greatest in Sydney’s western suburbs where there was a three percentage point rise among ALP voters who believe Labor is best able to handle the issue of asylum seekers.

There was a rise in Coalition supporters who now favour the ALP, up from four per cent to seven per cent.

Labor supporters who believed the Coalition was best able to handle the task also fell massively from 21 to 5 per cent.