Daily iron ore prices (doomsayer bird)

Find below the iron ore price table for July 12, 2103:

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More strength on the restock. I hope you’ll notice that I’ve not been bearish on this move once it began. It’s the medium and long term that’s a problem. But for now we’re running:

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That’s a healthy double bottom. And rebar average too is sluggishly rising:

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Our swap/spread chart is not overly stretched:

Capture

But ore/rebar spreads remain very wide:

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Chinese port stocks fell quite sharply last week as to 76.35 tonnes.

I maintain the view that this rally will struggle to breach $130 but you never know. Irrespective, it is a great opportunity to go short into the seasonal weakness of September. Chinese data this week may be important.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. As long as steel mills continue to purchase there is every chance $130 will be reached – strikes and indigenous issues for Vale; heavy rains in the Pilbara; new supply never quite what the experts imagine; India in a mess…

    Plus longer term the announcement of the construction of ten new cluster cities in China with more detail to come – dwellings,roads, subways, inter regional highway connections, water and effluent plants – everything needed in a modern Chinese metropolis.

    Who knows Hubei Steel were forecasting $140 by year end…