Coking coal catches a break

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From the ANZ commodities team today:

Iron ore and coking coal prices firmed last week in line with a pick-up in domestic Chinese steel prices. We think iron ore prices have performed better than expected, but with restocking from China close to running its course and weaker Q3 seasonal demand, prices are at risk of correcting. Baltic capesize freight rates have fallen 14% in the past month and iron ore prices tend to lag by a month or so. Coking coal markets appears to have bottomed, with prices ticking up for the second consecutive week. Reports of China’s government (MIIT) ordering the closures of outdated domestic iron (2.8mtpa at 9 locations), steel (7mpta at 24 sites) and coke (16.3mtpa across 46 sites) could be supporting sentiment, but coking coal markets are still oversupplied.

With a bunch of big mines yet to come on stream. This may be “a” bottom for coking coal but it’s not yet “the” bottom:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.