From the ANZ today:
Rallying oil markets potentially supported sentiment for thermal coal, but firmer physical iron ore prices were likely driven by strength in paper markets. Iron ore swaps (IOS) andShanghai rebar futures posted another day of gains across the curve. However, we think near-term gains could be short-lived, with Baltic capesize freight rate declining for the second consecutive session. Coking coal markets continued to be under pressure, down 0.95c to USD133.4/t. Reports suggest Japanese coking coal buyers are increasingly looking to the lower-priced spot market for supplies, with quarterly term contracts looking less attractive. Australian exports of coking coal rose to a 5-month high of 8.47mt in May, according to the ABS, as shipments to North Asia offset a decline in exports to India. In contrast, Australian thermal coal exports dipped in May to 14.05mt on lower shipments to China andJapan consistent with a falling trend in exports. Year-to-date, thermal coal exports have fallen 9% y/y.