Brace for pain at the pump

Oil is threatening to break out on rising tensions in Egypt. The cash price has not yet moved beyond its recent trading range but futures have and suggest more rises in the offing for spot:

Regardless, with local currency weakening, Australian dollar oil prices have broken out to a five year high at $109 per barrel:

For perspective, this is still 20% or so below the 2008 record prices:

However, actual petrol prices are yet to fully register the jump so expect more price hikes in the next month:

It seems likely to me that we’ll have to get used to sustained higher petrol prices in the medium term as well.