Weekly poll aggregation

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Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.

Three polls this week:

  • Newspoll has moved two points against the government (42-58)
  • Morgan has moved one point against the government (44.5-55.5)
  • Essential is unchanged (45-55)

Let’s start with the Newspoll, which was a bit of a shocker for the Government. The Greens also appear to be going through a purple patch.

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Without further evidence of a new slump, I suspect the most recent two-point movement from Newspoll was mostly noise. My gut feeling is that the underlying voting intention is not moving much at the moment. At this stage we are not seeing similarly large movements from the other polling houses.

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This status-quo LOESS result is confirmed by the Bayesian Aggregation. If you look at the 91-day Henderson moving average, the latest results are not inconsistent with a broader narrative of a slow trickle of votes to the Labor party (call it a slow narrowing).

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.