The media largely misses the most important point today. The regime of Julia Gillard never got support because her power was widely viewed as illegitimate. She came to power by selling Australia’s interests to big miners and then by trading favours with other pollies. Gillard built an edifice on flawed foundations.
These facts always outweighed the rationale for her actions – that Rudd was hard to work with – and in the rough and tumble of politics that was always going to show through when things got tough.
The Rudd wound is healed. Labor will do better than it would have. Whether it will do well enough is a moot question.
Labor has taken FAR TOO LONG to recognise its very serious error. That has poisoned the well. Rudd’s messages, which began well last night, may drown in the fetid memory of Labor’s internal machinations, constantly stoked by the LNP.
Elections are won by pushing the opponent off the middle ground. It can be just one issue, that becomes the touchstone. The issue right now is Labor’s credibility which is somewhere out near Pluto.
Abbott is hidden from view and that will erode his support but by how much? Rudd has already made a start on shifting the debate to new territory. He is obviously going to adopt the MB described platform of forthcoming economic challenges as a centrepiece of his rhetoric. And position himself as the GFC saviour, called back to shepherd the nation through a new post China-boom crisis (or at least challenge). This makes plenty of sense and will resonate with cautious households.
Abbott’s path is equally clear. Say nothing of substance and point constantly at Labor. He faces a real danger in this. If Rudd can cut through, Abbott will quickly be pigeon-holed as Dr No once more. He’ll need more and will especially have to address his Party’s obsession with austerity. But only if Rudd can cut through.
My overwhelming feeling today is sadness. Sadness that Labor was so out-of-touch with the people and ethics that it thought it could do what it did and get away with it. Sadness that our media is so illegitimate itself that it has been unable to grasp the simple truth of Gillard’s illegitimacy. Sadness that our political economy has sunk so low.
There’s hope today for renewal of the Australian political economy but how much only time will tell.
