Net exports to power GDP

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released balance of payments data for the March quarter of 2013, which registered a big seasonally adjusted fall in the current account deficit (CAD) to $8,510 million, from $14,759 million in the December quarter.

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The fall in the CAD was driven primarily by a large $5,578 million improvement in the trade balance, which turned around from a $-5,211 million deficit in the December quarter to a surplus of $367 million in the March quarter.

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The primary income deficit also improved, falling by $681 million over the quarter to $8,548 million.

Other things equal, the improvement in net exports figure will contribute 1% to the March quarter’s headline GDP result. Median private forecasts will hover now around 0.6-0.7% for the quarter.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.