From Goldman today:
Commodity and currency forecast changes
Our Global ECS team expects the gold price to drop in the medium term: its new December 2014 forecast of US$1,050/oz is lower than spot gold, and lower than its US$1,300/oz forecast for the remainder of 2013.The team has also lowered its copper price forecast in the short term, and now forecasts a 2H13 price of US$3.12/lb (was US$3.55/lb) and 2014 copper price of US$2.99/lb (was US$3.15/lb).
The A$ passed through our economists’ previous 3-month target due to a combination of the US Fed entertaining tapering QE, poor commodity price trends, the subsequent sell down in Australian equity positions, and signs that the demand for A$ assets by reserve diversifiers has paused. Our economists therefore lowered their A$/US$ forecasts to 0.86 in in 2014 (was 0.91) and to 0.85 in 2015 (was 0.89)
