Find below the iron ore price table for June 11:
Not movement as China remains on holiday. The 12 month swaps continues to cling impressively to $108-10.
In news today, Macquarie Bank brings hope. From Bloomie:
The commodity used to make steel will fall for another four to six weeks until China’s stockpiles bottom out between last year’s low of a 17-day supply and a “critically low” 14 days, analysts Jeff Largey, Alon Olsha and Daniel Lurch said in an e-mailed report today. Stocks are already down to 21 days, compared with 30 days a year ago, according to the report.
“There could be four to six weeks of further weakness until the China destock ends,” the analysts said in the report. “Even without a robust restock, we believe the end of destocking should return iron ore prices to about $120 a ton” in the second half.
Quite plausible, yes. Though I’ll add the caveat that I think Chinese mills are structurally altering their stocking habits to shorter inventories as supply builds so any rebound will be brief and they will be slashing production throughout the second half so any rebound is a moot point.
Rio brings its new 45 million tonnes in Q3. Fortescue brings it s new 4o million tonnes in Q4. BHP brings its new 30 million tonnes in Q1 next year. Then there’s all the little guys, everywhere.
Resistance to $80 is futile! The only question is when.
