Weekly poll update

This week we have two fresh poll reports. A status quo report from Essential (45-55), and 0.5 percentage point improvement for the government from Morgan (45.5-54.5). I have ignored the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which was a shocker for the government (41-59). My model does not include single-state polls of Federal voting intention.

Both the LOESS and the Bayesian Aggregation suggest that over the past two months there has been a slow trickle of votes back to the government worth almost one percentage point (on the BA – don’t get me going about the way in which LOESS exaggerates end point trends).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.