Weekly poll aggregation

Advertisement
imgres

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.

Last week, I urged caution with one poll suggesting a decline in Labor support. This week, we see more evidence of a decline in Labor support:

  • Essential has moved a point in the Coalition’s favour (now 56 to 44) over last week and the pervious independent fortnight
  • Newspoll has moved a point in the Coalition’s favour (now 56 to 44) over the previous Newspoll
  • Morgan has moved half a point in Labor’s favour over last week (now 56 to 44)
Advertisement

The raw poll results follow:

The decline has affected the Bayesian aggregation:

Advertisement
Advertisement

The projected seat outcome for the House of Representatives from the Bayesian aggregation was: 99 seats for the Coalition, 48 for Labor and three for others. The result almost tipped 100 (and indeed, the Henderson smoothed line above did tip 100-47-3).

Advertisement
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.