Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.
- The Morgan poll moved 2.5 percentage points in the Coalition’s favour (56.5 to 43.5)
- The Essential poll was unmoved on the previous independent fortnight (54 to 46), but it is a percentage point in the Coalition’s favour on last week.
The raw and LOESS charts follow.
The two-party preferred (TPP) vote share aggregation yields a result of 44.3 to 55.7. However, the movement in the aggregation over the final week is driven by a single polling house; the new Morgan multi-mode poll. As I look at the aggregation, I am not sure whether to discount last week’s jump or this week’s decline for the Government. As both the jump and the decline appear to be (at least in part) driven by movements in the Morgan poll, it could be argued they cancel each other out.
I remain vexed by the new Morgan poll. Morgan has not released a lot of information on their polling methodology, which makes it difficult to assess. One of my issues is the new Morgan series is looking a little bouncy (perhaps over-dispersed) for its sample size. Something to ponder.
The longer running narrative for 2013 has been a sizable collapse of support for the government between January and late March. While this fall in voter support has been arrested, the recovery needs to pick up from its currently glacial pace for Labor to be well placed come September 14.
Turning to the aggregated primary votes:
