Weekly poll update

Three new polls this week:

The Morgan multi-mode (with a sample of 3372) moved 1.5 points in the Government’s favour (yielding 44 to 56)
Essential (at 44 to 56) moved away from the Government by two points on the previous independent sample fortnight (but unchanged on last week)
Newspoll (at 45 to 55) moved three points in the government’s favour on the previous fortnight.

Collectively, these polls are in broad agreement, with a small movement towards the government on the previous fortnight.

With the benefit of the latest data, the Bayesian aggregation (below) is now treating the two shock results for the government from the last fortnight of March as outliers.

Share

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.