Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.
The latest Newspoll has a three point bounce in the Government’s favour.
I am always amused at how the papers interpret poll-to-poll bounces. Most of the time, most of the movement in a poll-to-poll bounce is random noise. It is without meaning. Most likely, today is no different.
All of the polls agree that the Government is recovering from its February nadir, just not at the rate of three percentage points in a fortnight. The latest Bayesian aggregation follows.
Note of caution: the Bayesian aggregation is very good at picking turning points in the trend. It is less accurate at picking the actual vote share the parties enjoy at a particular point in time. The aggregation model assumes the population trend is the average of the bias across the (now 7) polling houses. My suspicion is that this average is currently biased.
