The media is full of reports that Kevin Rudd may launch a leadership challenge as soon as Friday as support for Julia Gillard crumbles. For what it’s worht the latest poll from Roy Morgan last night had a rebound for the Prime Minister but it only recovered last week’s losses:
It’s plainly obvious that Gillard is a dead duck but Rudd should not challenge in my view. He should wait to be begged by the party to return and there should be no spill. There are a number of reasons why.
First, after being soundly defeated by Ms Gillard in last year’s ballot, Mr Rudd promised not to challenge again. Given the polity has an issue with the Government’s integrity, to break that promise reinforces a major poll negative, even if he wins.
Second, the Labor Party’s greatest electoral advantage under Rudd will be the sense that a wrong has been righted. The “square-up”, as I have previously called it, will be maximised only if it comes from the Party, not Rudd himself. If Rudd is asked to return it is an implicit acknowledgement that dumping him was a mistake. There’ll be no need to labour the point, as it were, justice will have been done and will add to Government credit.
Third, Rudd needs the moral power for a gargantuan clean-out. In acknowledging its mistake, the Labor Party will also be accepting responsibility for the consequences, which will mean a clean out of the faceless men and unionists that think of politics as a game rather than civic service.
In short, it’s pointless electing Kevin Rudd leader. The Labor Party itself needs rebirth with the return of Rudd if it is to gain from this debacle of its own making.
