Newspoll thrashing for Gillard

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.

There is a bit of noise in the most recent polls, but the overall message is a move away from the government.

• Newspoll has moved 6 points to the Coalition over the previous fortnight. But if you concede that the previous fortnight was a little rogue, it has only moved 3 points on the previous month.
• Morgan has moved away from the government two points on the previous week, but it is only half a point down on a fortnight ago.
• Galaxy is unchanged on three weeks ago.
• Essential was unchanged on the previous week, but up a point for the government on the previous fortnight, and up two points on a month ago.

Graphically, this looks like …

Let’s have a closer look at that Newspoll.

Turning to the Bayesian aggregation, it looks like we have a new minimum, and the potential for an even larger landslide election result than we have seen for some time.