Macro Morning: Australia dollar headed higher

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

The S&P 500 closed just 2 points shy of its all-time high but after market news from the banks that the Fed is allowing them to buy back shares and increase dividends is likely to get it there tonight. There is a bunch of options expiring tonight as well so it could be a very interesting.

Over the past 24 hours however the key driver has been jobs data. Unbelievable jobs data in Australia, weak jobs data in Europe and encouraging jobs data in the US.

Dealing first with jobless claims in the States it is clear that for the moment there is real healing going on in the economy. Jobless claims fell another 10, 000 last week to 332,000 and the four week moving average is being dragged lower also which is a good sign for both the economy and stocks.

And it was stocks in both Europe and the US that were buoyed by the apparent improving US economy. On the Continent, stocks were stronger across the board. The periphery of Spain and Italy did best with the Spanish 30 year auction success driving their markets sharply higher. Spanish stocks rose 1.88% while in Milan stocks were 2.45% higher (Beppe who?). The CAC rose 0.94%, the FTSE was 0.73% higher and the DAX rose 1.09%.

dax, frankfurt stock exchange, dax quote, dax chart

As you can see in the chart above the DAX is trying to break back up through and into the uptrend from last year. It is looking a little overcooked but time will tell.

In the US the Dow extended this little run to 10 days straight with a rise of 0.58%. The Nasdaq is up 0.43% and disappointingly the S&P closed a couple of points shy of its all-time high up 8 points or 0.55% at 1,563. MarketWatch reports this morning that the volumes on the NYSE and associated with this run of wins is below the average of the past 49 days. Nasdaq volumes are also below their recent averages as well. Interestingly MarketWatch juxtaposes the volumes that were in the market the last time the Dow had a run like this back in 1996 and says that volumes increased as the run extended.

Clearly this is a rally that is long in the tooth which may account for the falling volumes but the old futures trader in me says that this is a warning sign.

After a low of 1.2910, euro managed to rally to 1.3032 and sits at 1.3002 as we write. Perhaps it’s back to the US dollar being pressured when stocks have a good night as they did across the board last night. But it wasn’t only the euro that had a huge range with the pound churning through more than 200 points in the past 24 hours. Making a low of 1.4909 the GBP rallied to 1.5118 and sits up 1.07% at 1.5079 as we write. That is a huge range for any major currency but as we noted yesterday GBP’s sell off looked a “little long in the tooth”.

gbp, gbpusd, gbpusd price quote, gbp chart

GBP has now traded up and to our fast moving average for the first time since early Feb and we would be now targeting a move back to the slow moving average which comes in at 1.5324 today. Even a garden variety retracement to the 38.2% Fibo level would suggest a move to 1.5418. Certainly the down trend is still intact but for the moment we’d rather be long than short.

Looking at the Aussie dollar yesterday’s huge surge in employment in Australia has a scent of the absurd about it which might account for why the Aussie didn’t kick on as much as might have been expected with such a “strong” number. To put this increase in perspective the US labour force is about 13.4 times the size of the Australian Labour force as measured by the Department of Labour and ABS respectively. So the increase of 71,500 in total employment might be likened to an increase in non-farm payrolls in any given month of something like 960,000 Americans. Not impossible but certainly a couple or a few standard deviations to the right. And ultimately that is the key to why the Aussie couldn’t get to 1.04 under its own steam but needed the US dollar to weaken and euro and Sterling to rally. The number was just too big to believe, half the increase might have actually been better for the Aussie bulls.

aud, audusd, australian dollar, australian dollar price quote, audusd

Looking at the chart you can see that our moving averages are very close to crossing over from downtrend to up trend and I tweeted yesterday that 1.0512 is now in the frame. That remains my view based on usual indicators and the set up.

On commodity markets crude was a little higher up 0.69% to $93.16 Bbl, natural gas was through the roof up 4.16% while gold is roughly unchanged at $1587 while silver lost 0.52%. Corn and soybeans both fell more than 1% while wheat rose 0.99%.


A quiet night with CPI in the US, Empire manufacturing and Capacity Utilization. Can the S&P get there???

Twitter: Greg McKenna

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  1. “… but the old futures trader in me…” And therein lies the problem for you, me and H&H….what we know to be right; the crafts we spent years perfecting; the analysis we do on a daily basis; MacroBusiness…all means…nothing. Because too much of everything ( reputations, paramountly!) has now been invested in The Fed etc ‘being right’. No matter what it takes ( the Aussie UE figures?!)….We shall be wrong and they shall be ‘right’…

    • Deus Forex Machina

      True – but that is why I have to think and act like a trader and not let my rhetoric get in the way of making money as disagreebale as that might sound sometimes.

      The boomer central bankers couldn’t care less about what they are doing to their grand children.

      But they can’t stay in power forever.

      • 2030 before the last of we BBers calls time on the workforce – maybe 2035 if the pension coffers are emptied. In markets that react in microseconds….that is forever! Cheers….

  2. Loved the Kouk’s response to your macro/micro tweet question yesterday Greg. Basically sums up Australia’s predicament I would have thought

    • Deus Forex Machina

      Yeah – but don’t forget aside from the recent rhetoric the Kouk is a pretty good economist.

      I think maybe unlike the US we just aren’t used to partisan economists.

      It was Stratising and Ecommenting 101 at the Majors that one never took sides and most of us stick to that.

      But the Kouk is a different beast – to each his own.