From the AFR:
Since the last poll before Christmas, Labor’s primary vote has fallen 5 percentage points to 30 per cent and the Coalition’s has risen 4 points to 47 per cent, giving it a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
…The poll shows Ms Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating has fallen 5 points to 45 per cent while Mr Abbott’s has risen 9 points to 49 per cent. In the same period, Ms Gillard’s approval rating has fallen 6 points to 40 per cent and her disapproval rating has risen 6 points to 56 per cent.
In contrast, Mr Abbott’s approval rating has risen 8 points to 42 and his disapproval rating has fallen 8 points to 55 per cent.
This confirms the 5% and 4% swings away from Gillard in Newspoll and Roy Morgan last week.
Gillard is dying. If this is the best she can manage with a cataract of rate cuts and rising consumer sentiment then the issue dominating the electorate’s opinion is not general conditions; it is her government.
Kevin Rudd continues to studiously deny any leadership ambition. Quite rightly he is waiting to return until begged by the party that deposed him.
Which it appears will happen. Presumably with Bill Shorten as Treasurer.
Given it is the disastrous MRRT that is finishing Gillard off, Rudd will have to address the tax. But renegotiating it will mean war with the miners and the states. The tax won’t work unless both the market valuations of mines and the state rebates is dropped (market valuations include the rents that are supposed to be taxed, hence if included they just cancel each other out, similar revenue neutralisation happens with the state rebate).
Rudd might claim that the tax has already enabled states to hike royalties, dump it, and make the election about something else. But that leaves him with the spending commitments.
He might also renegotiate another dud tax and kick the can.
Does Labor have the stomach to close the loopholes?
