Preliminary estimates for January indicate that the index rose by 2.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 3.4 per cent in December (revised). The largest contributor to the rise in January was the increase in the price of iron ore, while the prices of base metals and rural commodities were broadly unchanged. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose by 2 per cent in January.
Over the past year, the index has fallen by 6.4 per cent in SDR terms. Much of this fall has been due to declines in the price of coking coal. The index has fallen by 7.4 per cent in Australian dollar terms over the past year.
As indicated in previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices are being used for recent months, based on market information.
And in Australia dollars:
The bull-roaring dollar and subdued coal bounce have prevented a recovery to last year’s levels despite the tear in iron ore.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
