Links 8 February 2013

Here’s a list of things Reynard read over night.

Global Macro/Markets:

  • Let’s wait for a fall in stocks before declaring a great rotation – FT ALphaville
  • Ranking Economists’ 2012 Predictions: The Best and Worst – Wall Street Journal
  • Simon Johnson: A Hollow Case for Big Banks – New York Times
  • Jim Rogers Joins Bill Gross Warning on Treasuries – Bloomberg
  • Speech: Stein, Overheating in Credit Markets – Federal Reserve

North America:

  • Condo overbuilding in Toronto has reached “ridiculous” proportions – Huffington Post
  • The C.BO.’s New Budget Outlook Shows How U.S. Fiscal Policy is Upside Down  – New Yorker
  • How does Tim Geithner change his mind? – Reuters
  • In U.S., Standard-of-Living Optimism at Five-Year High –
  • Robert Shiller’: Home Investment A Fad – Business Insider
  • Fed: Consumer Credit increased $14.6 Billion in December – Calculated Risk
  • Retailers Post Strong January Sales Growth – Wall Street Journal


  • Ireland deal explainer –
  • ECB Dashes Irish Hopes of Quick Decision on Bank Plan – Bloomberg
  • ECB, Ireland reach deal on promissory note – source – Reuters
  • Why it matters that the Irish promissory notes are gone – FT Alphaville
  • ECB: Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
  • Bank of England decision and statement – Bank of England
  • Mark Carney BoE Questionnaire – Bank of England
  • Carney Promises BOE Flexible Future – Wall Street Journal
  • Carney Backs Flexible Inflation Targeting in BOE Testimony – Bloomberg
  • Mark Carney Speaks Out On NGDP Targeting – Business Insider
  • Can the Euro’s Fiscal Compact Cut Deficit Bias? –
  • Germany unveils tough new banking rules – Yahoo News


  • Insight: Japan PM’s push for radical BOJ head meets resistance – Reuters
  • The simplicity of Chinese accounting scandals – Quartz


  • Another non-bank lender on the brink of collapse? – Mortgage Mix
  • Stockland in trouble on the Gold Coast – Property Observor
  • Top-end tax utopia alright for Reinhart – The SMH
  • Companies urge government to boost lagging productivity – The AFR
  • Changes to super still likely – The AFR
  • Private health insurance premiums set to rise – The AFR
  • Surplus eases pressure on WA – The AFR
  • Stop tinkering with super: BCA – The Australian
  • Super needs wholesale reform – The Australian
  • Swan break mine tax promise – The Australian
  • More delays a blow to Whitehaven – The Age



  1. HnH, last night I mentioned I had received from paper Bob Gregory used as the basis for his speech. I really recommend you check it out.

    Traditional 70s approach (to Dutch Disease – a term not used at all in this most recent paper) seemed sensible at the time. Now a new approach is needed because different issues exist. Focuses on four key areas. A fresh analysis here and recognition that 70s analysis was not longer relevant.

    Will alter thinking of many.

    ps I’m not sure of the protocols of linking a privately supplied doc – will check.

  2. I’m bemused by the celebrations over Japan’s new commitment to inflation. If their target is met, nominal yields will be some 3 times higher, assuming real yields do not turn sharply negative. Higher nominal interest rates will eat into the budget; interest payments already account for over 10% of expenditures, and total debt servicing costs amount to 24% of the budget.

    Inflation will therefore necessitate spending cuts of higher taxes to offset higher debt servicing costs, that is, fiscal retrenchment; if not, then more monetization of growing deficits, exacerbating the cycle.

    Obviously the optimists will argue that higher tax receipts arising from a vigorously rejuvenated Japanese economy will negate the need for fiscal tightening and/or and an ever-growing reliance on monetized deficits. We shall see.

    • mjv…It can hardly end well on would think. However note well Japan is in a better position to get away with it than anyone else on the planet…except maybe China? Still Japan’s chances of it ending well look close to zero. All the economists, thinking Japan is an experimental model for everyone else, are nuts.
      Compared to Japan our economy, the US Europe are already disaster areas.