Find below the iron ore price table for February 27, 2013:
Spot is stuck and swaps fell, perhaps as Cyclone Rusty moved away from Port Hedland. I’ve shifted to rebar average prices so forgive the series break. Anyway, it fell marginally on the day, as did rebar futures, though they seem to bottoming:
I consider it still pretty bearish that Rusty has had so little impact on iron ore. Most reports indicate little damage to iron ore production and shipping, although Bloomberg has the following:
A storm that closed Australian ports handling 43 percent of world iron-exports delayed as many as 74 vessels amid rain that might interrupt mining, Alphabulk said.
The backlog at Port Hedland and other ports nearby will curb Australia-bound charters of Capesize vessels over the next month, the Paris-based maritime consultancy said by e-mail today. Port Hedland is the world’s largest port for shipping iron ore.
“Even without any significant damage, the backlog will take weeks to work through,” Alphabulk said. Reduced Australian cargoes may spur additional ore shipments from second-ranking exporter Brazil, which would result in longer-distance voyages, it said.China is the leading importer of the commodity.
Prolonged rainfall from Rusty expected over mines owned by BHP Billiton Ltd. (BLT) and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. “could lead to more significant long-term loss of production,” Alphabulk said. The companies are Australia’s second- and third-largest ore exporters, respectively.
Ore-shipping ports may stay closed until March 1, Gulf Agency Company (Australia) Pty Ltd. said today by e-mail. Port Hedland and Port Walcott evacuated vessels on Feb. 24, while Dampier’s port closed to traffic the next day, according to e- mails from the port agent.
Ore shipments from the region are estimated to fall by about 5 million tons, or about 5 percent of global volumes, tightening supply into March, Melinda Moore, a London-based bulk-commodity sales executive at Standard Bank Plc, said in a report yesterday.
Looks pretty minimal. The rain radar shows the sun is out this morning in PH:
I would fade any short term spike that happens but I’ll be surprised if there is one.
