Find below the iron ore complex price table for February 5, 2013:
Not much to add except to say that despite a flat spot price, rebar futures were again active. The theme of the day was short weakness versus long strength, which to my mind is back-to-front:
The news today supports that view, with Westpac’s Justin Smirk making waves over the second half ore price. From Bloomie:
Iron ore may fall 35 percent by the year-end after advancing to $170 a metric ton in the first half as mines in China boost production, cutting import demand in the world’s largest buyer, according to Westpac Banking Corp.
The price of the steelmaking raw material may tumble to $110 a ton by the end of 2013, according to Sydney-based senior economist Justin Smirk. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Tianjin was unchanged at $154.20 a dry ton today, according to data from The Steel Index Ltd. Smirk is the most accurate base- metals forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past three quarters and correctly predicted a price slump last year.
Iron ore has surged from a three-year low in September as China’s growth rebounded in the final quarter and imports rose to a record. Bank of America Corp. said last month the commodity may fall to $110 a ton by the year-end, while Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also predict a second-half slump as worldwide supply increases. Some investors deem a drop of 20 percent or more to be a bear market.
“Given the low level of inventories and where prices are going, we think Chinese production will respond,” Smirk said in an interview today. “The big swing will come through from China itself,” he said, referring to iron ore production.
…Chinese mine supply may increase from March after production was curbed by the coldest winter snap in almost 30 years, Credit Suisse AG said Jan. 10.
Yep.
