Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot.
Essential is acting a little strangely for a rolling poll. The last six weeks have seen Essential report the two-party preferred vote estimate for Labor as 46 – 46 – 46 – 45 – 46 – 44. When I break this down into independent fortnightly polls I get one series that reads 46 – 46 – 46 (a flat line). The other series reads 46 – 45 – 44 (a consistent decline). This week’s aggregation is informed by the second series. (This anomaly makes week-to-week comparisons of the aggregated poll a little problematic).
Newspoll has moved one point in Labor’s favour since the poll three weeks ago. The lines in the next chart plot a Henderson moving average.
Comparing pollsters using a localised regression we have …
And the aggregation: Labor’s recent decline may have found a floor. Also worth noting that the national seats model has the Greens winning Melbourne. I have left the axes unchanged for the Monte Carlo seats model, but this is becoming problematic.
A new Morgan poll was published last night and here it is:
