RP Data: House prices rebound in January

By Leith van Onselen

House price data rolls on, with RP Data-Rismark just releasing their daily hedonic indices for 31 January, which has allowed me to derive January’s dwelling price results for the five major capital city markets.

According to RP Data-Rismark, the 5-city dwelling price index rose by 1.11% in January, which represented the first rise in the index since September 2012, and almost fully offset the previous quarter’s -1.18% of losses:

As you can see, dwelling price increases were broad-based across the five major capitals, with Sydney and Perth leading and Melbourne and Adelaide lagging.

Over the year, prices have risen in all major capitals, except Melbourne, although they have lagged inflation both nationally and in Brisbane and Adelaide:

Dwelling prices at the 5-city level are now down -4.6% since peak in nominal terms, with significant losses in Melbourne and Brisbane offset by only moderate losses in Sydney:

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  1. From memory, isn’t there a substantial dip in sales volumes during December-January? It may result in less accurate readings over this period.

    • They’re not using “live” data, so the figures aren’t actually all that reflective of Dec-Jan volumes. They only have access to relatively old data via the various state authorities.

      Don’t let the daily updates confuse you, this data is several months old! They just update their index every day, instead of once a quarter as the ABS does, or once a month as the other providers do.

  2. Didn’t Kris Sayce from MoneyMorning question the reliability of RP Data methodology and got threatened by legal action for constantly exposing flaws in its modelling?

  3. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Does the ABS quarterly result come out soon?

    In my local area (predominantly for upgraders and first home buyers) good properties (houses) moving quickly.

    Others (townhouses and Units) are either not selling or taking along time to move. Those not selling have become rentals as the owners have commited and moved on.

    Spring is traditionally a busy period for Property, so the next few month results will be interesting to see if this momentim continues. It seems the blanket coverage these APM and RP data results are getting, may see more patsies roll up to open homes this weekend.

    Will the ABS data get much coverage in the MSM if it disappoints?

  4. It would only be fair for us to look at the data the way The Kouk did in the first 15 days of the new year and extrapolate the results for 2013…
    There seems to have been a general roll over in the price series in every city around the last week of Jan.
    Taking the national index peak of 568.60 on 23rd Jan and the 567.47 reading on 31 Jan, I deduce an annualised fall in nominal house prices of -8.68% is possible if this continues (my math is bad, so happy to be corrected).
    Dont buy into this data now!

    • “Dont buy into this data now!”


      How about some other combos:

      – “Don’t spruik now!”
      – “Don’t buy RBA/Treasury waffle now!”
      – “Don’t listen to your ill-informed wife pressuring you to buy now!”
      – “Don’t touch grants poorly disguised as bait in a steely debt trap now!”
      – “Don’t believe the white collar criminals with barracuda smiles trying to fool you into a lifetime of debt servitude now!”
      – “Don’t start leveraging up now!”
      – “Don’t forget your grade 8 maths in calculating the risk of serious wealth destruction over 30 years in a global and domestic environment primed for SEVERE debt deflation now!”
      – “Don’t stop reading Prosper/Macrobusiness/any Georgist website now!”

      Or, if we wanted to positively re-frame the statement:

      – “Use RP data and other vested interest reports as spare toilet paper now!”

  5. Jumping jack flash

    volumes down prices up.

    Isn’t that normally bubble end game behaviour?

    Would be nice to know new loan volumes compared to new loan median/average amounts to confirm. Increasing new loan amounts on reducing numbers of new loans would mean that fewer people are borrowing more, as people continue to be priced out of the market. This would have the effect of raising medians.

    But who knows? Things are just not normal when interest rates aren’t used as they should – to reflect risk.