ASX Shares Daily – December 4th

By Chris Becker

The Asian response to the fall in US manufacturing overnight was tepid at best, confused at worst, but it was all eyes on the RBA as it cut rates, yet the dollar rose against the USD! Aussie stocks retraced all of yesterday’s gains with the ASX200 losing 0.6% to 4503 points. Check out a full roundup by sector including some the top 8 stocks and some technical analysis below.

The Nikkei 225 had a small loss as the Yen strengthened slightly against the USD, while Chinese markets are putting in a scratch day – not breaking out as I expected. Notch that for another wrong call in the short term!

The Aussie dollar slipped a little on the rates decision, but then rallied slightly as the full statement was absorbed by traders – in other words no real change against the USD or most of the other major crosses either. Given there’s a few more months before the next rates decision in February, there’s no real pressure here .

The US Dollar Index and Gold (USD) are continuning to act weird, BOTH falling today – the latter getting close to support at $1700USD per ounce, I’m getting that trade wrong –  the former below support, got that right – strange times indeed:


Australian Stocks

The table above shows losses across most sectors, although Health had a small upday, the pain was mainly in materials – that’s another I’ve got wrong in the short term!

The best performing ASX8 (the top four miners and banks) was Woodside – only losing 0.1% – not much really to say with that one – bullish sideways is the best interpretation:

The market is trying to revisit the previous high falling below resistance at 4520 points – but with significant support at 4400 points:


This free daily update should be read alongside Live Trades articles, published every morning at Macro Investor, and placed in context with the longer trends and macro drivers within the overall technical picture,  where former “Trading Week” readers will find it reborn as “Technicals“, published 8.30am each Monday morning. Chris Becker is an investment strategist at Macro Investor, Australia’s leading independent investment newsletter covering stocks, trades, property and fixed interest.  A free 21-day trial is available at the site.

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  1. “The market is trying to revisit the previous high falling below resistance at 4520 points – but with significant support at 4400 points:”


    I am getting a bit tired of all these doom & gloom. Granted, the economic fundamentals today are not good, but then again, they have never been great at best of times.

    I can wait as long as it takes while keep collecting dividends, but is not it about time for the ASX to go through 5000…?

  2. Not sure what you’re alluding to dumpling?

    My base case is the ASX200 will likely get to 4900 – maybe in 2013, but over the next couple of years it will oscillate between 4400 and 5000 points.

    There’s little to zero earnings growth coming – the only thing holding up the market is dividend yield spread.

    Besides, looking at the ASX200 in isolation is only dangerous for fund managers – this is a stock picking, cyclical paradise, not for buying the index willy nilly.

    • Just a hunch, TP, not the fundamentals.

      The fundamentals alone would never justify the stratospheric prices we witnessed prior to the GFC. There must be something else, perhaps mass psychology, in play for the stocks to deviate from what the fundamentals can support.

      Both the RBA and MSM totally missed the approach of the GFC during the frenzy, and are now getting all doom & gloom. Given that their track record is consistently behind the curve, I gathered that one step ahead of doom & gloom is … going upward.