Find above today’s iron ore complex table. Here are the charts. Spot and 12 month swap:
The spread between them is running out of room for this price level:
If you think about it, the spread makes a fair amount of sense. Current iron ore demand is boosted by restocking and Chinese leadership transition hopes. Future pricing is tagging fundamentals.
Still, current conditions are getting little support from higher steel prices:
And remember, this is despite steel production showing a huge leap in Fridays’ industrial production figures. Whatever the overhang, it is large.
No hope either in China’s coastal bulk shipping indexes:
But the capesize index of the Baltic Dry has turned around:
My hope last week that Indian news may be enough to send iron a leg higher is looking forlorn. There is perhaps enough room for a brief run at $125 but I’d be unsurprised to see a smooth Chinese leadership transition trigger a slump.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.