Links 4 October 2012

Global Macro:

  • No recovery till 2018, IMF warns – The Guardian
  • IMF chief economist says crisis will last a decade – Reuters
  • History, gravity, and international finance – VOX
  • FT Alphaville » Currency wars as global stimulus – FT Alphaville

North America:

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increases in September – Calculated Risk
  • BlackRock’s Fink Says U.S. a Year Away From Robust Growth – Bloomberg
  • ADP: Private Employment increased 162,000 in September – Calculated Risk
  • The economy: Asking the experts – The Economist
  • Mortgage Prepayment Rate Reaches Highest Level Since 2005 – Bloomberg


  • How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro – Wall Street Journal
  • European Bank Capital Results Overtaken by Tougher Global Rules – Bloomberg
  • Euro zone September PMI slide suggests no return to growth this year – Reuters
  • Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Final 46.1 – Markit
  • Euro-Region August Retail Sales Unexpectedly Increase on Germany – Bloomberg
  • Democracy itself is at stake in southern Europe – Financial Times
  • Our age of extremes – Inside Greece
  • The lessons learned by Britain in the ‘20s, applied to the Eurozone of today – New York Times


  • China’s Slowdown Reverberates as ADB Cuts Forecasts – Bloomberg
  • As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms – Washington Post
  • A Muddling Through China, But No Hard Landing – Goldman Sachs – eFXnews


  • VIC aggregate property values not keeping pace with nominal economy – DSE
  • Deficit raises fear of boom’s end – SMH
  • Easy money fuels property bubble risks – AFR
  • Car industry slams steel tariff plan – AFR
  • States losing $14.5 billion in GST as consumer spending shrinks – AFR
  • RBA slow to see the end of the boom – AFR. They have been slow to see a lot of things! Risk management ain’t their specialty.
  • Boom’s end sounds call for economic reforms – The Australian
  • Chinese money loves Oz. AFR Sorry Tony



    • Murray’s bankster DNA shines through nonetheless –

      When you examine how banks work and how they’re regulated, they need to make a return on equity around 16 or so per cent.


      “Capital” invested in entities whose business model is to make profits from loaning electronic bookkeeping entries at usury – ladening the individual thence the economy with the burden of principal PLUS usury repayments – “need” to make a 16% return on their investors’ “capital”?!?

      How can it not be crystal clear to all that “banking” should be either a public utility or (per my suggestion) wholly decentralised; that “money” should be created debt-free and interest-free.

      Murray again –

      Well which reality do we want in Australia? A reality where we’re always having a shot at one another, us versus the banks, politicians versus the banks, was it the Reserve Bank’s fault?, was it someone else?, why can’t we have new entitlements? Or are we going to create a new reality in which we understand what shape of place we can be and how to be highly productive and a free country and get there.


      • Maybe it might not be quite so important if gail Kelly et al didn’t pay themselves $10 or $12 million a year!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Yes littleguy. He missed a HUGE chance to really say to teh Australian people our WHOLE bloody system is over-run by our self-entitlement. We’re entitled to cheap interest rates all teh time to build big houses to make us rich without working! We are all entitled to new SUV’s financed at 1%! We’re entitled to the latest gadgetry! The govt sector is late to this party of excess!

    • Tks Op8 but as per my comment to littleguy he missed a big chance. It’s not just Govt excess we should be questioning.

      Also where the hell has he been with this stuff during the decades i’ve been trying to tell anyone who would listen….which is almost nobody.
      The whole mess has been obvious for 50 bloody years. He’s aware this CAD has been going on forever. Why does he just start to talk about it now?

  1. How Does a Currency Drop 60% in 8 Days? Just Ask Iran – The Atlantic

    Nadeem Walyat on the Iranian situation which contains a warning for us all.
    Over the past six years he has been pretty spot on with his analyses of events.

    ran Wage Price Spiral Towards HyperInflation Panic Collapse Triggered by U.S. Currency War WMD’s