We already know that the Chinese HSBC and official PMIs sank in August:
The other North Asian export powerhouses released their PMIs late yesterday and, unsurprisingly, they showed the same pattern.
Taiwan was down 1.4 points to 46.1:
South Korea managed an immaterial rise:
But at least its nee orders slowed their decline.
A few days earleir there was Japan which fell 2 points to 47.7:
Basically, the entire North Asian export complex is in recession. Thankfully not yet the economies with some service sectors and industrial production holding up. But how long can this external bleeding can go before unemployment starts to rise and spread? Whether it stops depends upon the course of Chinese and European stimulus. Hence I expect this grind to go on. The best hope is that inventories liquidate faster than new orders triggering a new inventory rebuild.
If you are interested in more and deeper analysis the below report from ANZ is very good.
ANZ Emerging Asia Economics Monthly September 2012 Issue, Q3 Recovery – R.I.P.
