Today’s NAB Survey has received a lot of attention from the broader media for the fall in business confidence. The Australian took the cake with it’s headline that confidence had been “crushed”.
Here is a longer term chart to give you an idea of where we actually are:
The past month hardly fell off a cliff. Here is a longer term chart to give you perspective:
So, business confidence has been tracking sideways more or less on a median similar to that of the troubled 2000s period, when the world managed through the dot-bomb. Moreover, it’s been in this range for well over a year and there was nothing startling about this recent fall except it was more mining oriented.
I see interest rates falling later in the year but this is nothing like the evidence needed to justify them.
