Macro Investor Vol 1, No 10. is now available at the website and in PDF.
Having skirted the edges of the GFC, Australia, the Australian dollar and our banks, bonds and miners have benefitted from positive investment inflows. But as questions now surface about the mining boom, the terms of trade and Chinese growth, the risk is growing that Australia is negatively re-rated by global markets and the Aussie dollar falls hard…
Yet while such speculation is often accompanied by thoughts of doom and gloom a falling dollar would actually be a blessing for many industries that haven’t been crowded out by mining. A falling dollar can also be a blessing for investors in exporting businesses, not to mention commodities, currencies and foreign stocks.
As our economy adjusts to a slowing China and more rational emerging market growth expectations there are as many opportunities as there are threats for the astute investor. After all, even the steepest bear market is a bull market if you are on the other side of the trade and in the capitalist system there’s always a winner for every loser just as there is a buyer for every seller.
As earnings season concludes and investors wake up to the new realities emerging in the US, Europe and China we look at the direction of the Australian Dollar and interest rates. Within that thematic we identify four companies that could do well from a weaker currency as well as a series of trading opportunities associated with commodites and shifting perceptions of Australia. We also take a close examination of the latest data releases from around the world, residential property in Brisbane and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference. Plus there’s money management techniques for retail investors, ideas on bank shares, a valuation summary of 47 companies that reported last week and lots more. We hope you have another profitable week.
Yours sincerely,
David Llewellyn-Smith
Editor-in-Chief and Publisher
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