We may be seeing the beginnings of a bottom for iron ore but the same can’t yet be said for coking coal. From ANZ:
Spot thermal coal fell 2.3% to USD86.37 last week, while coking coal shed 5.4% to USD153.20/t. Coking coal prices continue to drift lower as buyers stay on the sidelines awaiting the results of Q4 contract negotiations. The expectation remains for these to conclude at the USD170-175/t mark. In trade data, Australian exports of thermal coal hit a record high of 15.85mt (+13.8% m/m) in July, buoyed by increased volumes from Japan and South Korea, according to the ABS. However, July hard coking coal exports fell to 6.14mt (22.75% m/m) as China stayed away for the first time since December 2008. Iron ore finished the week down slightly at USD89/t – although this was mostly due to Friday’s USD2.00 gain following China’s approvals of infrastructure projects.
Iron ore and coking coal tend to track one another so there may be a better week ahead for coking coal.
ANZ Commodity Daily 701 100912
David Llewellyn-Smith
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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