ANZ job ads heading south

ANZ job ads for August are out and, yes, unemployment is going to rise:

• The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers fell 2.3% in August after falling 0.8% in July. This was the fifth consecutive monthly fall, something that last occurred in the second half of 2011, when consumer and business confidence was significantly affected by uncertainty with European economic and financial developments. Advertisements are now 9.6% below year-ago levels. In trend terms, job advertisements fell 1.2% m/m in August.
• The number of job advertisements in newspapers fell 6.1% in August, with falls occurring in all states and territories except the ACT. Large falls were recorded in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. The 11.1% decline in the Northern Territory followed a 31.6% decline the month before. The trend for newspaper job advertising is in decline in all states and territories, except South Australia, although it remains mild in NSW. Of interest has been the emergence of a declining trend in job advertising in Queensland, WA and the Northern Territory, which has now been in evidence for around six months.
• The number of internet job advertisements fell 2.1% in August, after falling 0.7% in July. Internet job advertisements were 9.0% below year-earlier levels and have fallen for five consecutive months. As with newspaper job advertising, recent months have seen weakness in advertising emerging in the states with the greatest exposure to mining, which were previously exhibiting relative strength.

And the relationship with unemployment is clear:

ANZ Job Ads Aug-12