From SQM Research this morning comes the news that housing stock on market fell significantly in July:
Figures released this week by SQM Research reveal that the level of residential stock around the nation took a dip during the month of July 2012, falling by -4.9% on a national scale and coming to a total of 368,081. With all capital cities except for Hobart recording monthly decreases, it appears that the cooler months have brought along falls in stock levels in the majority of localities across the country.
Although seasonally it is expected that stock will decrease during the winter periods, a decrease of this magnitude could be seen as the first signal that stock is being absorbed quicker than previous months. Indeed if stock continues to decrease in the months ahead, this could be a potential indicator that the housing market is entering into recovery mode.
Year on year, the decrease has been slightly more modest, with stock falling by -2.4% on a national scale and Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart and Melbourne all experiencing yearly increases.
Louis Christopher, the managing director of SQM Research says “It is early days however this could be an indicator of a turning point in the market. We also note that nationally, there is now less stock on market than this time last year. Brisbane, Darwin, Perth and Sydney all have less listings in the market compared with July last year.”
Key Points
Total online residential listings recorded a -4.9% monthly decrease during July 2012, coming to a total of 368,081.
This figure represents a -2.4% decrease when compared to the corresponding period of the previous year (July 2011).
Hobart was the only capital city to record a monthly increase, rising by 0.2% during July 2012, and coming to a total of 4,465.
Melbourne experienced the largest monthly declining, falling by 12.6% during July 2012, coming to a total of 48,322.
Hobart also recorded the largest yearly increase, climbing by 29% since the corresponding period of the previous year (July 2011).
Darwin experienced the largest yearly decrease, falling by 28.6% since the corresponding period of the previous year, coming to a total of
1,273.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
