I’ve reported already on the less than stellar China PMI today. The other North Asian export powerhouses have also reported today and in the last 24 hours and the tune they are singing is a dirge not a ditty.
Although I’m sure that, like here, the only issue is shaky confidence and skepticism ;-), the July PMIs accelerated downwards and are showing all of the signs of a rather nasty cyclical accident.
First, Japan, where there’s not much need to dig past the headlines:
- Output and new orders down at accelerated rates
- New export business decreases at sharpest rate in 15 months
- Average costs fall to greatest extent since November 2009
Next South Korea, where the headlines are virtually identical:
- Production and new orders fall sharply
- Backlogs decline at survey-record pace
- Input prices fall at fastest rate since November 2006
Next Taiwan, where the headlines are again poor but the index is higher than earlier in the year:
- Order book volumes decreased substantially during July
- Workforces contracted at the fastest pace since June 2009
- Input prices fell steeply in the Taiwanese manufacturing sector
And Vietnam, which is falling swiftly into a hole:
- Business conditions worsen for the fourth month running in July
- Output and new orders decline at faster rates
- Average cost burdens continue to fall
So, the manufacturing powerhouse of the world just took a major lurch downwards in July. These results show a global economy in which trade is very quickly slowing, unemployment is starting to rise and unless there is some serious policy intervention in the very near term to boost global demand, we may on the verge of a global growth stall.
I’m not going to dress this up for you. This is worrying data.