RP Data: House prices off lows in June

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By Leith van Onselen

The RP Data-Rismark house price results for June are out and national capital city home values have clawed back around two-thirds of May’s losses, increasing 0.97% over the month.

A summary of the key results are provided in the below table:

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The below chart shows the daily price movements by capital city since the beginning of the year:

As you can see, prices rose over the month in all major capitals with the exception of Adelaide. And after seven consecutive weeks of price falls between mid-April and end-June – where prices nationally fell by -2.1% – they have risen for four consecutive weeks, resulting in a cumulative -1.2% decline in values since mid-April.

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Since the beginning of the year, prices nationally have fallen in all major capitals, with the exception of Sydney (+0.58%). Melbourne (-4.08%), has performed particularly badly not withstanding this month’s solid (+1.03%) rise in values:

Over the past 12-months, home price are down -3.79% nationally, with Melbourne (-6.57%) and Brisbane (-4.96%) leading the way and Sydney (1.97%) and Perth (-1.38%) holding-up better:

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Following June’s increase in national capital city home values, dwelling values nationally have declined -6.5% since peak, led by Brisbane (-11.4%) and Melbourne (-9.6%), with Sydney (-4.0%) and Adelaide (-4.5%) holding-up better:

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The next crucial piece of the house price jigsaw arrives in a few week’s time with the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics housing finance data for May. Following the release of the Reserve Bank credit aggregates on Friday, which reported the equal second weakest growth in nominal housing credit on record, we are expecting another subdued result, which will, other things equal, imply that June’s recovery in national capital city home values will lose momentum.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.