What’s wrong with the below story?
1. Melbourne home sales have tanked, tracking -42% below the five-year average and -36% lower than last year’s sales activity:
2. Mortgage demand in Victoria has collapsed, with the number of mortgage discharges (mortgages repaid in-full) actually exceeding the number of mortgage lodgements (new mortgages) in the year to June 2012:
3. The number of homes for sale in Melbourne is at record highs, tracking around double 2008 levels:
4. New house sales in Victoria are anemic and expected to decline further now that the $13,000 First Home Bonus (which was available to newly constructed homes) has expired:
5. And yet new home construction continues in ernest, with Victoria completing nearly 40% of the nation’s new dwellings in the March quarter of 2012 – a record share – and more construction in the pipeline:
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
