Analysis of Australian home price movements got more confusing after the release today of the Australian Property Monitors (APM) home price results for the June quarter. Whereas both RP Data-Rismark and Residex reported falling house prices over the June quarter, APM have recorded a rise in capital city house prices of +0.4%. By contrast, capital city unit prices fell by -0.8% over the June quarter.
A break-down of the house price results by capital city and nationally is provided below:
As you can see, Melbourne led the way, increasing by 1.6% over the quarter. By contrast, Brisbane recorded the worst result, falling by -1.3%.
A note of caution, however. Most of the increase in house prices nationally (and in Melbourne) was caused by downward revisions to the previous March results. When June’s house prices are compared against the March quarter release (table below), house prices nationally rose by a more modest +0.2%, with Melbourne recording only a +0.4% increase.
The opposite is the case for unit prices, where APM’s -0.8% quarterly fall were driven entirely by upward revisions to the March quarter (see tables below).
When the June quarter unit price results are compared against the March release, unit prices nationally actually rose by 1.3%.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is due to release its capital city house price results for the June quarter on Wednesday 1 August. With the various private data providers recording conflicting home price results, we will once again look to the ABS to break the deadlock.
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
